2026 Real Estate Preview Webinar
Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2026–2028: Are Condo Prices at the Bottom?
If you’ve been watching the Toronto condo market lately, you’ve probably asked yourself one question:
“Are we finally at the bottom — or is there more downside ahead?”
After reviewing pricing trends, rental demand, interest rates, and future supply, the data tells a very clear story:
👉 2026 may feel slow.
👉 2027 stabilizes.
👉 2028 is where the next growth cycle likely begins.
Let’s walk through exactly why.
Chapters/timestamps:
0:00 Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2026 (Plus 2027 & 2028 Predictions)
0:29 Alex Wilson (RE/MAX Broker) + Investor Background
1:14 Key Takeaway: Real Estate Is a Long-Term Wealth Strategy
1:52 Toronto Condo Prices Down (2022 Peak vs Pre-COVID Levels)
2:34 Investor Strategy: How Tenants Pay Down Your Mortgage
4:09 Condo Values Are Down—But “You Only Lose If You Sell”
5:10 Toronto Market Outlook 2026: Prices May Dip in the First Half
5:42 Return-to-Office Mandates 2026: Why Downtown Demand Rises
6:43 Downtown Toronto Office Leasing Boom (Housing Demand Signal)
8:12 Tech Companies Expanding in Toronto (NVIDIA, Lyft, Robinhood, WeWork)
11:24 Why U.S. Companies Are Expanding in Toronto (Costs, Talent, Stability)
12:45 Toronto Rent Forecast 2026: Why Rents Could Rise Again
14:57 GTA Movers + Commute Times: Why People Return Downtown
16:28 Condo Supply vs Demand: Why the Market Can Tighten Fast
18:38 Toronto Condo Supply Cliff 2026–2028 (Completions Drop Sharply)
20:29 2026–2028 Timeline: Stabilization → Rental Growth → Price Cycle
22:34 Why New Condo Supply Can Stall for Years (Pre-Sales Explained)
25:00 Toronto Condo Investing: Cashflow Example at Today’s Rates
26:48 Condo Appreciation Potential: 2019 vs 2022 vs Today
28:23 Rent vs Buy in Toronto: 5-Year Cost Comparison
29:06 First-Time Buyer Strategy: Rent a Room to Build Equity Faster
30:35 Condo-to-Freehold Ladder: How Buyers Move Up in Toronto
34:34 CIBC Housing Outlook + Bank of Canada Rate Cuts (2028 Growth Case)
35:25 Book a Call + Talk to a Wealth Builders Investor Agent
Where Toronto Condo Prices Stand Today
Toronto condos are currently:
~35% down from the February 2022 peak
~25% below pre-COVID 2020 levels
For many buyers, that feels uncomfortable.
For investors?
This is typically where opportunity begins.
Because real estate has always rewarded long-term positioning, not short-term timing.
Real Estate Is a Long Game (Not a 12-Month Game)
Too many people judge real estate like stocks — month to month.
But wealth in real estate is built through:
Mortgage paydown by tenants
Compounding appreciation
Time in the market
A modest 3% annual growth rate over 30 years can more than double property values.
That’s how portfolios grow — not from perfect timing.
And that’s exactly how seasoned investors approach down cycles like this one.
What Happens in 2026?
Expect Continued Pressure Early
The first half of 2026 will likely see:
Elevated inventory
Price softness
Slower buyer activity
We may see another ~5% decline before stabilization.
But here’s what most people are missing…
Under the surface, demand is already building.
Why Demand Is Quietly Returning Downtown
1. Return-to-Office Mandates
Companies are now enforcing:
3–5 days in office
Reduced remote flexibility
More downtown commuting
And that changes everything.
Long commutes quickly push people back toward:
Renting downtown
Buying condos close to work
Pied-à-terre properties
Lifestyle convenience drives housing demand — every cycle.
2. Office Leasing Is Surging
Downtown Toronto just experienced:
The busiest office leasing stretch in 20 years
AAA vacancy below 3.5%
Major tech expansions
When companies lease space…
👉 employees follow
👉 renters return
👉 housing demand rises
Office demand historically leads residential demand.
We’re already seeing the early signals.
The Biggest Factor Most Buyers Don’t Know About
The Condo Supply Cliff (2026–2028)
Here’s the real story.
Over the last few years:
Pre-construction sales collapsed
Projects weren’t launched
Developers paused builds
And condos take 5–7 years to go from sales → completion.
Meaning:
2026 → supply slows
2027 → supply drops
2028 → supply nearly stops
We’re heading toward one of the lowest new condo supply periods in decades.
So what happens when:
Demand goes up
AND
Supply goes down?
Prices stabilize… then rise.
The Math Works Again for Investors
For the first time in years:
Toronto condos are close to cashflow neutral (or slightly positive).
Example:
$550,000 condo
~3.8% mortgage
~$2,800/month carrying cost
~$2,800/month rent
Now add:
Principal paydown
Rent growth
Appreciation
Over five years, the wealth difference versus renting can exceed $200,000+.
This is exactly how many first-time buyers build their first real estate equity.
Rent vs Buy: The Wealth Gap
Renting a $2,200/month condo for five years:
Cost → $132,000
Return → $0
Owning with a roommate strategy:
Principal paydown
Appreciation
Rental income
Potential gain → $200k+
That equity becomes your down payment for the next property.
This is how people move from:
Condo → Freehold → Portfolio
It’s a proven ladder.
What Happens Next?
Here’s the likely timeline:
2026
Prices soften → rentals stabilize
2027
Rent growth → modest price appreciation
2028
Supply dries up → next price cycle begins
History shows Toronto real estate moves in cycles.
And today’s conditions look very similar to previous “bottom” periods before strong rebounds.
Final Thoughts
If you’re:
Waiting for certainty
Trying to time the exact bottom
Sitting on the sidelines
You may miss the window.
Because by the time headlines turn positive…
Prices already have.
The best opportunities often feel uncomfortable at first.
But for long-term investors, today’s market looks more like an entry point than a warning sign.
Want Help Creating Your Strategy?
If you want to talk through:
Buying your first condo
Adding an investment property
Selling or repositioning assets
Building a long-term portfolio
Book a call with Alex - click here
Alexander J. Wilson
#2 Individual RE/MAX Agent for Closed Sales in Canada 2024
#1 Individual RE/MAX Agent for Closed Sales in Canada 2022
Member of RE/MAX Circle of Legends
Broker Owner
RE/MAX Wealth Builders Real Estate
Email: alex@remaxwealth.com
Office: (416) 652-5000
Mobile: (416) 996-5181
If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - contact me... I know the best agents.