Toronto Real Estate: Analyzing the Shifts and Trends of September

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales in September were adversely affected by factors such as high borrowing costs, rising inflation, uncertainty regarding future decisions of the Bank of Canada, and a deceleration in economic growth. Despite an increase in market listings, the average sale price showed a year-on-year rise.

TRREB President Paul Baron expressed that the short and medium-term prospects for the GTA housing market differ significantly. He anticipates that high borrowing costs will persist until mid-2024, after which they will begin to decline. As a result, he expects a surge in demand for ownership housing in the latter half of next year, driven by lower rates and record population growth.

In September 2023, REALTORS® reported a total of 4,642 homes sold through TRREB’s MLS® System. This figure represents a 7.1% decrease compared to September 2022. The decline in sales was more noticeable for ground-oriented homes, particularly semi-detached houses and townhouses. Sales also experienced a slight drop on a month-to-month seasonally adjusted basis.

New listings in September 2023 showed a strong year-on-year increase from the extremely low level recorded in September 2022. There was also a month-on-month upward trend in the number of listings on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark rose by 2.4% year-on-year. The average selling price increased by three per cent over the same period. However, both the average selling price and the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark saw a less than one per cent decrease on a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis.

According to Jason Mercer, TRREB Chief Market Analyst, GTA home selling prices are still higher than the low point experienced in early 2023. He noted a more balanced market in the summer and early fall, with a notable rise in listings relative to sales. He suggests that this could provide some buyers with increased negotiating power, potentially offsetting the impact of high borrowing costs in the short term.