2026 Real Estate Preview Webinar

Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2026–2028: Are Condo Prices at the Bottom?

If you’ve been watching the Toronto condo market lately, you’ve probably asked yourself one question:

“Are we finally at the bottom — or is there more downside ahead?”

After reviewing pricing trends, rental demand, interest rates, and future supply, the data tells a very clear story:

👉 2026 may feel slow.
👉 2027 stabilizes.
👉 2028 is where the next growth cycle likely begins.

Let’s walk through exactly why.

Chapters/timestamps:

0:00 Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2026 (Plus 2027 & 2028 Predictions)

0:29 Alex Wilson (RE/MAX Broker) + Investor Background

1:14 Key Takeaway: Real Estate Is a Long-Term Wealth Strategy

1:52 Toronto Condo Prices Down (2022 Peak vs Pre-COVID Levels)

2:34 Investor Strategy: How Tenants Pay Down Your Mortgage

4:09 Condo Values Are Down—But “You Only Lose If You Sell”

5:10 Toronto Market Outlook 2026: Prices May Dip in the First Half

5:42 Return-to-Office Mandates 2026: Why Downtown Demand Rises

6:43 Downtown Toronto Office Leasing Boom (Housing Demand Signal)

8:12 Tech Companies Expanding in Toronto (NVIDIA, Lyft, Robinhood, WeWork)

11:24 Why U.S. Companies Are Expanding in Toronto (Costs, Talent, Stability)

12:45 Toronto Rent Forecast 2026: Why Rents Could Rise Again

14:57 GTA Movers + Commute Times: Why People Return Downtown

16:28 Condo Supply vs Demand: Why the Market Can Tighten Fast

18:38 Toronto Condo Supply Cliff 2026–2028 (Completions Drop Sharply)

20:29 2026–2028 Timeline: Stabilization → Rental Growth → Price Cycle

22:34 Why New Condo Supply Can Stall for Years (Pre-Sales Explained)

25:00 Toronto Condo Investing: Cashflow Example at Today’s Rates

26:48 Condo Appreciation Potential: 2019 vs 2022 vs Today

28:23 Rent vs Buy in Toronto: 5-Year Cost Comparison

29:06 First-Time Buyer Strategy: Rent a Room to Build Equity Faster

30:35 Condo-to-Freehold Ladder: How Buyers Move Up in Toronto

34:34 CIBC Housing Outlook + Bank of Canada Rate Cuts (2028 Growth Case)

35:25 Book a Call + Talk to a Wealth Builders Investor Agent

Where Toronto Condo Prices Stand Today

Toronto condos are currently:

• ~35% down from the February 2022 peak

• ~25% below pre-COVID 2020 levels

For many buyers, that feels uncomfortable.

For investors?

This is typically where opportunity begins.

Because real estate has always rewarded long-term positioning, not short-term timing.

Real Estate Is a Long Game (Not a 12-Month Game)

Too many people judge real estate like stocks — month to month.

But wealth in real estate is built through:

• Mortgage paydown by tenants

• Compounding appreciation

• Time in the market

A modest 3% annual growth rate over 30 years can more than double property values.

That’s how portfolios grow — not from perfect timing.

And that’s exactly how seasoned investors approach down cycles like this one.

What Happens in 2026?

Expect Continued Pressure Early

The first half of 2026 will likely see:

• Elevated inventory

• Price softness

• Slower buyer activity

We may see another ~5% decline before stabilization.

But here’s what most people are missing…

Under the surface, demand is already building.

Why Demand Is Quietly Returning Downtown

1. Return-to-Office Mandates

Companies are now enforcing:

• 3–5 days in office

• Reduced remote flexibility

• More downtown commuting

And that changes everything.

Long commutes quickly push people back toward:

• Renting downtown

• Buying condos close to work

• Pied-à-terre properties

Lifestyle convenience drives housing demand — every cycle.

2. Office Leasing Is Surging

Downtown Toronto just experienced:

• The busiest office leasing stretch in 20 years

• AAA vacancy below 3.5%

• Major tech expansions

When companies lease space…

👉 employees follow
👉 renters return
👉 housing demand rises

Office demand historically leads residential demand.

We’re already seeing the early signals.

The Biggest Factor Most Buyers Don’t Know About

The Condo Supply Cliff (2026–2028)

Here’s the real story.

Over the last few years:

• Pre-construction sales collapsed

• Projects weren’t launched

• Developers paused builds

And condos take 5–7 years to go from sales → completion.

Meaning:

2026 → supply slows

2027 → supply drops

2028 → supply nearly stops

We’re heading toward one of the lowest new condo supply periods in decades.

So what happens when:

Demand goes up
AND
Supply goes down?

Prices stabilize… then rise.

The Math Works Again for Investors

For the first time in years:

Toronto condos are close to cashflow neutral (or slightly positive).

Example:

$550,000 condo
~3.8% mortgage
~$2,800/month carrying cost
~$2,800/month rent

Now add:

• Principal paydown

• Rent growth

• Appreciation

Over five years, the wealth difference versus renting can exceed $200,000+.

This is exactly how many first-time buyers build their first real estate equity.

Rent vs Buy: The Wealth Gap

Renting a $2,200/month condo for five years:

Cost → $132,000
Return → $0

Owning with a roommate strategy:

Principal paydown
Appreciation
Rental income

Potential gain → $200k+

That equity becomes your down payment for the next property.

This is how people move from:

Condo → Freehold → Portfolio

It’s a proven ladder.

What Happens Next?

Here’s the likely timeline:

2026

Prices soften → rentals stabilize

2027

Rent growth → modest price appreciation

2028

Supply dries up → next price cycle begins

History shows Toronto real estate moves in cycles.

And today’s conditions look very similar to previous “bottom” periods before strong rebounds.

Final Thoughts

If you’re:

• Waiting for certainty

• Trying to time the exact bottom

• Sitting on the sidelines

You may miss the window.

Because by the time headlines turn positive…

Prices already have.

The best opportunities often feel uncomfortable at first.

But for long-term investors, today’s market looks more like an entry point than a warning sign.

Want Help Creating Your Strategy?

If you want to talk through:

• Buying your first condo

• Adding an investment property

• Selling or repositioning assets

• Building a long-term portfolio

Book a call with Alex - click here

Alexander J. Wilson

#2 Individual RE/MAX Agent for Closed Sales in Canada 2024

#1 Individual RE/MAX Agent for Closed Sales in Canada 2022 

Member of RE/MAX Circle of Legends

Broker Owner 
RE/MAX Wealth Builders Real Estate

Email: alex@remaxwealth.com

Office: (416) 652-5000
Mobile: (416) 996-5181

If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - contact me... I know the best agents.